October 24, 2024
New Data in TrendLens™
by Michael Chung
Based on feedback from users and our Market Intelligence Committee, we have added four (4) new data points to the Economic and Industry Indicators section of TrendLensTM:
You’ll find these data points in the “E&I Data” picklist as illustrated:
Let’s talk about each indicator and how you might use them:
Cooling Degree Days
We added these data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook Data Browser. This statistic is a way to measure how hot a period of time has been and estimate energy needed for air conditioning (similarly, heating degree days are an indicator of energy required for heating) (1).This metric is often monitored by manufacturers and service providers who deal with parts and services known to be correlated with weather – batteries, air conditioning components, etc. You can use the “Correlation Coefficient” feature in TrendLens™ to identify the strength of correlation between cooling degree days and other indicators, or category/parts sales within Demand Index.
Similarly, Demand Index subscribers can easily visualize whether a lag exists between an increase in cooling degree days and sales of a specific parts category.
Similarly, Demand Index subscribers can easily visualize whether a lag exists between an increase in cooling degree days and sales of a specific parts category.
Nonrevolving Consumer Credit
In addition to the revolving debt indicator already published, we have now added BLS data for nonrevolving consumer credit (2). Nonrevolving credit is closed-end credit extended to consumers that is repaid on a prearranged repayment schedule and may be secured or unsecured. To borrow additional funds, the consumer must enter into an additional contract with the lender. Consumer motor vehicle and education loans comprise the majority of nonrevolving credit, but other loan types, such as boat loans, recreational vehicle loans, and personal loans, are also included.
This data point can be used in combination with other consumer indicators like consumer confidence and disposable income to forecast the likelihood of service and maintenance delay. As always, these data can be exported for deeper analysis using the “download” feature as illustrated – simply export the data by clicking the “Download” button at the bottom of the platform and selecting the “CSV” option – this will provide the data that you selected (indicators for the timeframe and geography selected).
This data point can be used in combination with other consumer indicators like consumer confidence and disposable income to forecast the likelihood of service and maintenance delay. As always, these data can be exported for deeper analysis using the “download” feature as illustrated – simply export the data by clicking the “Download” button at the bottom of the platform and selecting the “CSV” option – this will provide the data that you selected (indicators for the timeframe and geography selected).
Refinish Paints, Automotive
This indicator is an indexed price for automotive paints (3). It informs pricing for body work for collision and repair service providers, and can be used by the paint, body and equipment sector as a benchmark for input prices.Truck Transportation Costs
As we already include the volume of freight delivered by trucks with the Truck Tonnage indicator, we now include the BLS’s PPI for Truck Transportation (4). This will help members monitor price fluctuations for domestic freight costs by truck.
Feedback and Suggestions?
As mentioned, these data points were incorporated based on user feedback. What data would you like to see in the platform? How are you using TrendLens™? E-mail me by clicking here and let me know what you think!(1) As defined by the National Weather Service: “Degree days are based on the assumption that when the outside temperature is 65°F, we don't need heating or cooling to be comfortable. Degree days are the difference between the daily temperature mean, (high temperature plus low temperature divided by two) and 65°F. If the temperature mean is above 65°F, we subtract 65 from the mean and the result is Cooling Degree Days. If the temperature mean is below 65°F, we subtract the mean from 65 and the result is Heating Degree Days.” Learn more by clicking here.
(2) Specifically, we publish Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized [NONREVNS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, available here.
(3) Specifically, we now publish the BLS’s “Producer Price Index by Industry: Paint and Coating Manufacturing: Automotive, Other Transportation and Machinery Refinish Paints and Enamels, Including Primers (PCU32551032551071)”, available here. In the BLS’s words, the PPI program “measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction …”.
(4) Specifically, we publish Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Transportation (PCU484484), available here.
Michael Chung, Director, Market Intelligence
Ready to dive into market research? I provide the industry with timely information on key factors and trends influencing the health of the automotive aftermarket and serving as a critical resource by helping businesses throughout the supply chain to make better business decisions. More About Me
Market Insights with Mike is a series presented by the Auto Care Association's Director of Market Intelligence, Mike Chung, that is dedicated to analyzing market-influencing trends as they happen and their potential effects on your business and the auto care industry.
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